Using Third Grade Data Insights to Boost Graduation Rates 

Districts across the country are once again evaluating their foundational reading curricula, echoing a broader debate among politicians and pundits on effective early literacy strategies. Despite the differing opinions on the best instructional methods, reading experts universally agree: achieving reading proficiency by third grade is essential for a student’s life trajectory. Yet, the stark reality remains—many American students have yet to achieve this critical milestone. Surprisingly, about two-thirds of American fourth graders still struggle with reading proficiency, a statistic that has remained largely unchanged over the past three decades.  

“Students who fail to [master reading by the end of third grade] often falter in the later grades and drop out before earning a high school diploma.”¹ 

Predicting High School Dropout Before It’s Too Late 

High school graduation has large and lasting impacts on both personal and societal wellbeing. Those who graduate from high school tend to live longer, healthier, and happier lives. Still, about half of a million high school students drop out of school each year, prompting thought and district leaders alike to wonder: 

Which personal factors predict high school drop out? 

A research study published by Donald J. Hernandez for the Annie B. Casey Foundation in 2011 sought to answer this critical question by analyzing data from a national longitudinal study of nearly 4,000 students. Spanning over a decade, the study began in first grade and continued until students either completed high school or reached age 19 without finishing. Its primary focus was on two key variables: third grade reading proficiency and economic status, specifically poverty. Assessing these factors involved the following methods:  

• 3^rd Grade Reading Proficiency was evaluated using the Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT) reading subtest, categorizing students into proficiency levels aligned with the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP): proficient, basic, and below basic. 

• Economic status, particularly poverty, was determined through caregiver interviews conducted biennially. Students were identified as experiencing poverty if, during any of the five interviews, they lived in a family with income below the federal poverty threshold. 

3^rd Grade Reading Proficiency and Poverty Experience Predict High School Completion 

The study, conducted to assess the impact of poverty experience and third grade reading proficiency on high school completion, produced compelling findings that underscore the critical importance of early literacy. Here are the key insights:   

• The research highlighted a significant disparity in graduation rates based on third grade reading proficiency levels as measured by the PIAT reading subtest. Students who scored below basic had a graduation rate nearly 20 percentage points lower than those who achieved proficiency.  

• Similarly, the study revealed that students who had experienced poverty during their childhood had a graduation rate that was 20 percentage points lower than their peers who did not experience poverty.  

• The combination of low third grade reading proficiency and poverty, termed “double jeopardy,” deeply impacted graduation rates. Only 74% of students who fit this profile completed high school, illustrating a compounding effect of both factors on educational outcomes.  

• Conversely, nearly all students who did not experience poverty (98%) and scored proficient or above on the PIAT (96%) graduated high school, indicating a strong protective effect of early reading proficiency and socioeconomic stability.  

For a visual representation of Hernandez’s findings, refer to the figure below illustrating graduation rates across different combinations of these critical factors.  

“While [students who scored Below Basic] account for about a third of the students, they represent more than three fifths of those who eventually drop out or fail to graduate on time.”¹

Reading Performance Remains Static According to the NAEP Grade 4 Reading Assessment

More than a decade has passed since Hernandez published his findings which linked third grade reading proficiency and poverty experience to graduation outcomes. In that time, his research has served as a cornerstone for hundreds of subsequent studies on factors influencing school completion, which have collectively shaped policies and reform efforts like the Every Student Succeeds Act, the Common Core State Standards, and most currently, the Science of Reading movement.

Despite these efforts and the widespread attention to improving educational outcomes, national assessments of elementary students’ reading proficiency show minimal improvements. As of the 2022 administration of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), the statistics remain sobering: 37% of fourth graders scored below basic, marking the highest percentage since 2003, while only 24% achieved a proficient score, the lowest recorded since 2005. These persistent challenges underscore the ongoing need for effective interventions and renewed efforts to ensure all students achieve essential reading skills early in their educational journey. The two tables below display data from the 2003, 2005, 2011, 2015, and 2022 administrations of the NAEP Reading assessment of U.S. fourth grade students. The first table displays the four distinct score categories. The second collapses them into two. Below Proficient includes students who scored Basic and Below Basic. Above Proficient includes students who earned scores of Proficient and Advanced.

“For children, a critical transition takes place during elementary school: until the end of third grade, most students are ‘learning to read’. Beginning in fourth grade, however, students begin ‘reading to learn’. Students who are not reading at grade level by third grade begin having difficulty comprehending the written materials that are a central part of the educational process in the grades that follow. Meeting increased educational demands become more difficult for students who struggle to read.”²

What Can District Leaders Do?

District leaders have the power to shape educational outcomes through data-informed decisions, despite limited control over societal factors like poverty. Research underscores early reading proficiency as pivotal for high school completion. To enhance literacy outcomes, districts should prioritize:

1. Regular Assessment: Continuously evaluate students’ literacy skills, including print concepts, phonemic and phonological awareness, to identify early risks.
2. Up-to-date Data: Ensure accurate and current student assessment data for informed and timely decision-making.
3. Integrate Data: Join all student data including academic and demographic data to easily identify students who might be in “double jeopardy” or compounded risk.
4. Early Warning Indicators: Establish research-backed indicators to detect literacy challenges as early as kindergarten.
5. Identify Students in Need and Perform Diagnostic Assessments: Not all students will have the same literacy needs. Additional assessments can help providers zero-in on each students’ emerging literacy skills that they can strengthen in a tier 2 setting.
6. Targeted Interventions: Develop and launch interventions tailored to address the specific needs of students who are not proficient readers, particularly those from economically disadvantaged backgrounds.
7. Progress Monitoring: Use data visuals to track student performance and refine strategies promptly.

By committing to these strategies, district leaders can narrow achievement gaps and equip all students with essential literacy skills for lifelong success.

References

1. Hernandez, D. J. (2011). Double jeopardy: How third-grade reading skills and poverty influence high school graduation. Annie E. Casey Foundation.
2. Lesnick, J., Goerge, R. M., Smithgall, C., & Gwynne, J. (2010). Reading on grade level in third grade: How is it related to high school performance and college enrollment? A longitudinal analysis of third-grade students in Chicago in 1996-97 and their educational outcomes. Chicago, IL: Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago.